StableTalk

Yes, we're off again with another (hopefully) interesting year of reports from the northern hemisphere covering the galloping scene up here and perhaps pointing out a Melbourne Cup winner somewhere along the line.

No rest for the galloping fraternity with plenty of jump meetings in Britain and Ireland to start 2019 and with the weather remaining mild and benign no inspections so should be big crowds at all the venues.

Further afield, the Meydan Cranival starts on Thursday and the long road to World Cuo Night gets under way. The Carnival opening meeting is the first occasion the turf course at Meydan is used in the Emirates racing season. There's no doubting the quality of the Meydan Carnival races especially those featuring the older horses and I'm convinced it detracts from the British winter flat racing programme. Thursday's turf feature is the Group 3 Singspiel Stakes over 1800m. 15 have been entered with five rated 111 or higher which is really Group 2 class. DEAUVILLE, an ex-Aidan O'Brien runner, is top rated at 115 and on his last trun was third to a certain ROARING LION in the Irish Champion Stakes which is about as good as it gets.

On that, he should pick these up and carry them but he's inconsistent. GOdolphin now has a team permanently based in Dubai for the Meydan season albeit nominally trained by UK handlers such as Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor. Horses like BAY OF POETS, TEAM TALK and DREAM CASTLE had form last winter but coime back off very long breaks of several months. AROD was a class act in the UK but has regressed and I'm much more interested in SETTLE FOR BAY who hasn't been seen since winning the Hunt Cup at Ascot. That race is a very hot handicap over the straight 1600m usually with 30 runners and he won that and then hasn't run since. If he's ready to run, he'll be very interesting against a number of these with significant questions to answer after long breaks or regressing form.

The first afternoon of the Meydan Carnival took place and it certainly looked a lot warmer in Dubai than it has been in London today.

Today's meeting saw the first turf races of the season and it was strange not to see ERTIJAAL competing in a 1000m race but it seems Sheikh Hamdan has a potential replacement in FAATINAH, an ex-Australian sprinter who had a fair opening season in Meydan last year but has clearly blossomed in the interim and won this well.

The Group 3 Singspiel saw Godolphin having six of the sixteen runners including the 11/10 favourite KEY VICTORY. Incredibly, Godolphin horses filled the first five places but can you guess which one wasn't in the five - yep, KEY VICTORY, who ran a stinker. DREAM CASTLE did it well and seemed to thrive stepping up to 1800m. RACING VICTORY, who once got to within six lengths of ALMANZOR, ran well in second and I suspect he may go back up to 2400m but the one who impressed me was SALSABEEL who, although a 5-y-o, was only having his eighth run and finished very strongly. He hasn't had much racing and I think there's plenty more to come.

The second Carnival meeting at Meydan was a fairly low-key affair. There were only two turf races but GOOD FORTUNE was a nice winner of the 1400m conditions event. He's another of the Godolphin legion and was third in a Listed at Newbury as a juvenile.

The feature Group 2 on the Dirt went to NORTH AMERICA who exploited the huge advantage to be gained by setting the pace and ran out a nine length winner from KIMBEAR. He has done this before - in March he won the final of the Al Maktoum Challenge (a Group 1) by nine lengths but than finished last in the World Cup despite having beaten THUNDER SNOW on one occasion.

Meydan's Dirt track has a ridiculous bias to front runners which does make the form questionable.

Another Thursday means another Carnival meeting at Meydan. The feature is the Group 2 Cape Verdi for the older fillies and mares over 1600m on the turf. This is as poor a race for the grade as you will ever see.

Top rated is FURIA CRUZADA, who was seventh in last year's World Cup having been a well held third in the Group 1 final of the Al Maktoum Challenge but her two runs this campaign have been uninspiring. Favourite is POETIC CHARM but she's nothing special albeit she won a Listed race last summer at Longchamp. ASOOF might be the answer having improved through handicaps last summer in the UK.

The ex French ISPOLINI should win the 2800m handicap having run well at 2400m a fortnight ago.

POETIC CHARM won the Group 2 Cape Verdi without a lot of fuss defeating ASOOF who ran a decent race in second. There won't be many softer Group 2 races run anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere this year. ISPOLINI meanwhile put up a very pleasing performance in the 2800m handicap and I imagine the City of Gold will be his target.

Just to mention I was at Lingfield for some flat racing yesterday - freezing cold and hardly anyone there and poor Ryan Moore looked as though he'd rather be anywhere else. The most interesting race of the day was the closing 2000m maiden for the 3-y-o. The newcomer ALLOCATOR with Moore onboard was backed in to 5/4 favourite but he looked to have plenty of growing still to do in the paddock and though he ran okay in third there'll be plenty more to come.

John Gosden saddled a Frankel colt called GANTIER who looked very nice. He finished second and I can only think he'll step up over 2400m. The race went to the Godolphin runner MARHABAN, a son of New Approach, He was blinkered which is often considered a negative over here but had run well on debut at Wolverhampton in early December. This was much better and he showed a nice turn of foot down the hill and off the home turn. He's gone into the notebook for something better later in the spring.

One or two bits and pieces of news on this cold evening in London Town.

BEAUTY GENERATION, arguably the best turf horse in the Northern Hemisphere currently, bolted up at Sha Tin yesterday over 1600m and is now set for either a trip to Japan or possibly Ascot. He hosed up in the Hong Kong Mile last month and turned the Stewards' Cup into a procession. I'd love to see him and WINX go over 1600m - would be one to savour.

A horse heading TO Australia from these shores is EMINENT who had at one stage been retired after a disappointing 4-y-o campaign punctuated by heart problems. He's owned by Sir Peter Vela who will be known to you lot but he's raced in the UK for his career so far. In 2017, as a 3-y-o, he mixed it with the very best. He won the Craven before running sixth in the 2000 Guineas and fourth in the Derby. After a slightly disappointing fifth in the Eclipse, he was an easy winner of a Group 2 at Deauville before running arguably his best race when third to DECORATED KNIGHT in the Irish Champion.

Many observers, including me, thought he could have a serious 4-y-o campaign but he never showed his 3-y-o and a fibrillating heart was found to be the problem.

I thought he was heading to stud but it seems he will head down to Australia and there's talk of a spring campaign in October/November. At his very best, he'd deserve a place in a Cox Plate field though I'm not suggesting he'd beat WINX if she turned up but he was rated 116 here at his best so was no slouch.

I've covered Hong Kong and Australia but my racing world trip isn't over yet as the Pegasus International meeting takes place at Gulfstream Park this Sunday. The Pegasus race itself was worth USD $16 million in 2018 but the value has been slashed to just USD $ 9 million this year for reasons I don't know. However, we now have a Turf Invitational race worth USD $ 7 million.

The Dirt race features the first two home in the 2018 Breeders Cup Classic in ACCELERATE and GUNNEVERA along with the Dirt Mile winner CITY OF LIGHT and the Florida Derby winner AUDIBLE. The Turf race over 1950m is a new race and replaces the Gulfstream Park Handicap. I'm not aware of any European runners but we'll know more in the next couple of days.

There's also a Meydan Carnival meeting on Thursday and more on that later in the week.

After a fairly benign winter to date, a cold snap claimed both today's turf cards and I suspect tomorrow's cards will be off as well.

The world rankings were published here today at a posh luncheon and to be fair they've caused a real stir. WINX and CRACKSMAN have ended up joint top rated at 130 - her best was in the Cox Plate and his in the Champion Stakes both over 2000m but she has always looked effective on any ground while his form is on wet ground.

Of even more interest was the revelation that of the 103 top races run anywhere in the world, no less than 31 took place in Australia and there's a real sense the balance of racing power is shifting south.
The Arc remains the world's top race but the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick is second. Britain had 19 top races, the USA 17 and Ireland just two. It's been described by one top commentator as a "wild deviation from reality" but the quality of European bloodstock going to Australia has unquestionably elevated the level of racing and I'm less surprised.

Meydan stages another Carnival meeting and I expect the ex-Aussie FAATINAH to win again over 1000m on the grass. There are two Group 2 events on the cards - the first is the 1800m Al Rashadiya on the grass. Godolphin own six of the nine runners so they'll probably have the winner but which one? Top rated is BLAIR HOUSE who chased home BENBATL at Caulfield and was sent off favourite for the MacKinnon but didn't get home in that race. DREAM CASTLE returned gelded after a long break and beat RACING HISTORY over course and distance three weeks ago and I see no reason why the places shouldn't be confirmed. The likes of FIRST CONTACT and LESHLAA have a lot to find on European form.

The Al Fahdi Fort over 1400m on the grass looks a tough race to sort out with a field of 13 going to post. Top rated is COMIN THROUGH who was fifth to none other than WINX in the Queen Elizabeth at Randwick last April. He was second in the Doncaster Mile and won the Doomben Cup but since winning the Group 2 Tramway Stakes last September his form has tailed off and he was a long way behind BEAUTY GENERATION in Hong Kong last time.

Likely favourite is D'BAI who performed with credit in a series of Group 2 1400m events in the UK last year. He was a close fifth in the Lennox at Goodwood, second in the Park Stakes at Doncaster and third in the Challenge at Newmarket. This is all very consistent stuff and he's got form on the Meydan track holding the track record over this distance. TOP SCORE was second in a ahandicap three weeks ago and may struggle against D'BAI who looks solid.

BIN BATTUTA won well three weeks ago and should follow up in the concluding 2400m handicap.

First, a quick look back on the afternoon's action at Meydan. The opening 1000m handicap saw expected favourite FAATINAH finish only third behind surprise winner MAZZINI, a former British galloper trained by James Fanshawe but sold to race in Dubai last autumn. MAZZINI had won his last two over 1200m in the UK but this was a big step up back in trip. HIT THE BID ran a close second so the form looks solid.

DREAM CASTLE and D'BAI duly won the two Group 2 races and both did it very well. Soumillon always had DREAM CASTLE just off the pace and quickened nicely to win by three lengths and he's obviously going to be a player in the big turf races to come. D'BAI had course form and solid form over 1400m in UK Group 2 races last year and in this easier company he scored convincingly. He's a lovely type but as always there aren't a lot of top races at the specialist 1400m distance.

BIN BATTUTA was a well held third in the concluding 2400m handicap. The race went to the ex-French galloper SPOTIFY who benefitted from a decent pace and some decent ground. He only just held off the local SHARPALO who has had plenty of runs round the Arabian circuit so there's just a nagging doubt about the quality of the form of the middle distance types at this time.

On to Saturday evening (UK) and at Gulfstream Park, 10 have been declared for the Pegasus Turf International over 1950m. The winning owner stands to trouser £2.4 million but this is a dreadful race in terms of quality. MAGIC WAND represents Coolmore and she has every chance on her second places in the Vermeille and the Opera but she's up against the boys even though she gets plenty of weight. YOSHIDA was fifth to ACCIDENTAL AGENT in the Queen Anne last June so he can handle fast turf and has claims while the Japanese AEROLITHE won a Group 2 last autumn but was well held in a Group 1 last November. My idea of the winner is CATAPULT who ran a fine race when just beaten by EXPERT EYE in the Breeders Cup Mile.

Twelve go in the Pegasus itself which has a first prize of £3.15 million and is run on Dirt over 1800m. This is ACCELERATE's final race and the question is whether he brings his best form to this occasion. If he does, he will probably win but I'm keen on the Dirt Mile winner CITY OF LIGHT who may just be the next big thing. Both GUNNEVARA and AUDIBLE have claims while Frankie Dettori rides KUKULKAN who is 100/1 despite a row of wins to his name. His last win was in a Listed at Gulfstream Park in December which he won by 10 lengths but last year he was the top horse in Mexico winning his last two Group 1 races by twelve lengths at the Hippodrome de las Americas which, if you didn't know and I certainly didn't, is in Mexico City.

As an aside from all this international nonsense, sobering statistics from the British Horseracing Authority showing a third successive year of falling racecourse attendances. The average attendance at a UK meeting was 3,924, down from 4,013 in 2017. Flat attendances fell nearly 5% while jump racing audiences were down 1.6%. Overall, while 5.77 million went racing, that's a fall of 7% since 2015.

Some are blaming the poor spring weather and the World Cup and while there may be some merit in that, we enjoyed a glorious summer so there's no real reason why attendances shouldn't have risen. I do think the cost of going racing is absurd - when I went to Lingfield on my birthday, admission was £22 for an ordinary 6-race jump card. That's borderline extortionate and needs to be a maximum of £10. To be honest, many of the racecourse groups over here are gouging the racegoers and if we had some firm action from the BHA such as setting maximum admission charges, we might get somewhere.

Unseasonal rain has affected Florida of late and Gulfstream Park saw the turf ground change to yielding before the inaugural Pegasus World Cup Turf. The race went to BRICKS AND MORTAR who showed the benefit of a run just before Christmas by coming home a clear two and a length winner from MAGIC WAND who ran a huge race in second having been checked at the turn out of the back straight as the field bunched. There was little Wayne Lordan could do but vital momentum was lost and well though the filly finished the winner got first run.

The rain left the Dirt sloppy for the big Pegasus World Cup but that didn't stop CITY OF LIGHT who put up a hugely impressive performance to win by five lengths. He had won the Dirt Mile at the 2018 Breeders Cup meeting but this was a huge step forward. Unfortunately, it's the last time we'll see him on the track as he is being retired to stud. ACCELERATE, also running his final race, tried to go with the winner exiting the back straight but was cooked in the final 300m and lost second on the line to SEEKING THE SOUL, who had chased CITY OF LIGHT home last November.

With both winner and third being retired, it's hard to see where the American challenge for the Dubai World Cup is going to come from at this time.