StableTalk

A few bits and pieces to update up here - the last German Group 1, the Grosser Preis von Bayern, over 2400m, went to IQUITOS who beat DEFOE by four lengths with the Derby runner up DEE EX a further four lengths back in third. IQUITOS is arguably Germany's best older horse but he has been beaten by BEST SOLUTION, BENBATL and WALDGEIST this season.

Meanwhile in Italy it was a highly emotional end to their Group 1 season with the Premio Lydio Tesio over 2000m going to British raider GOD GIVEN, trained by Luca Cumani (father to Aussie trainer Matt and media pundit Francesca). She just held off NYALETI and SNOWY WINTER in a 1-2-3 for the raiders. GOD GIVEN will now be retired to the Cumani's own stud, Fittocks. Apparently the normally stoic Cumani shed a tear and remarked that apart from winning a Group 1 in his own country, enjoying a fine lunch at his favourite Rome restaurant was the highlight of the day.

In truth, neither German nor Italian racing is what it was - both countries saw funding for racing reduced significantly after the global financial crash in 2008 and most Italian races have dropped out of the European pattern. Both countries have seen their bloodstock industries decimated and tracks have closed.

The English turf Flat season closes quietly at Doncaster on Saturday and the Irish season ended at Naas last weekend.

Sad news to report the death of THE PENTAGON in Australia just two days after CLIFFS OF MOHER perished in the Melbourne Cup. THE PENTAGON was briefly Derby favourite as a 2-y-o but never quite fulfilled some of his early promise after winning the Tyros at Leopardstown as a juvenile. He was eighth in the English Derby and fifth in the Irish Derby and was five lengths behind Melbourne Cup winner CROSS COUNTER in the Voltigeur.

For housekeeping, the Japan Cup is on November 25th with the Hong Kong International meeting on December 16th.

Little to report on this week - we had the Cartier Awards this week which were predictably a huge triumph for John Gosden. ROARING LION took the top 3-y-o colt and Horse of the Year Award . He will stand at Qatar Racing's Tweenhills Stud in Gloucester for £40,000 - the highest fee for any first season sire in Europe in 2019. LIGHTNING SPEAR also joins the Tweenhills ranks at a more reasonable £8,000.

Back to the Awards and TOO DARN HOT won best juvenile and STRADIVARIUS best stayer. ALPHA CENTAURI won 3-y-o filly of the year, MABS CROSS was top sprinter and ENABLE top older horse. SKITTER SCATTER was top juvenile filly.

PRINCE OF ARRAN, who ran a fine third in the Melbourne Cup, is heading to Hong Kong for the 2400m Vase.

More immediately, CAPRI and THUNDERING BLUE look to be the European representatives for the Japan Cup next weekend. CAPRI was fifth in the Arc and fourth in the Champion Stakes and the step back up in trip will help while THUNDERING BLUE was third to ROARING LION at York before winning in Sweden and running second in Canada. I doubt that form is going to be good enough against the locals but we'll see.

News today Prince Khaled Abdullah has decided to keep dual Arc winner ENABLE in training as a 5-y-o and she will bid to become the first horse to win three Arc de Triomphes next autumn.

It's a brave move and one hopes the Arc and Breeders Cup Turf winner's season will be less curtailed in 2019 than in 2018 when she raced only three times winning the September Stakes at Kempton before her two massive wins at Longchamp and Churchill Downs.

No programme has been announced but on the assumption she would stick to 2400m you could imagine the Coronation Cup and the King George being the two obvious targets then maybe a tilt at the Yorkshire Oaks or the Vermeille as a prep race.

She'll have to take on SEA OF CLASS and of course whatever emerges from the classic generation.

Speaking of which, those who read my drivel might remember this from a few weeks ago:



HUMANITARIAN turned up in a 1600m maiden on the Polytrack at Lingfield on Saturday and bolted up in the manner of a thoroughly decent prospective middle distance horse. He' s in the Derby while TRAVEL ON, who was eighth in that Newmarket maiden, has been beaten twice since and looks a bit slow so perhaps looks aren't everything.

14 go in Sunday's Japan Cup worth just shy of £2 million to the winner over 2400m at Fuchu racecourse in Tokyo where the ground is as usual Firm.

Strong favourite is local 3-y-o filly ALMOND EYE who won the 1000 Guineas and oaks in the summer and came back to win the Shuka Sho (the big autumn race for the 3-y-o fillies). She's a superstar, gets all the weight allowances and will take a lot of beating.

CHEVAL GRAND won this last year and has real claims but has to give the young filly 9 lbs which won't be easy. CAPRI comes here from decent efforts in the Arc and Champion Stakes and he'll like the ground but this is a big ask against the locals. Joao Moreira, who has switched to Japan from Hong Kong, rides SATONO DIAMOND but William Buick is on SATONO CROWN who is a big price at 33s on some of his old form.

THUNDERING BLUE, the other European, looks outclassed and the older horses are all giving weight to the Japanese version of ENABLE from 2017 and she'll need to run several notches below top form to lose this.

ALMOND EYE put up a scintillating performance to win yesterday's Japan Cup smashing the Fuchu track record in the process.

She was always close to the murderous pace - they ran the first 1000m in 59 seconds flat - and Christophe Lemaire never had a moment's anxiety as he sent her past pacesetter KISEKI to win by a length and three quarters with a further three and a half lengths back to the others. ACLMOND EYE stopped the clock at 2 minutes 20.6 seconds for the 2400m smashing the track record which had stood since 2005 by 1.5 seconds.

It all happened far too quickly for the Europeans CAPRI and THUNDERING BLUE who were always towards the rear.

ALMOND EYE was cut from 20/1 to 9/1 for the 2019 Arc de Triomphe and she would be a fascinating contender were she to come over. Before that, she is due to go to Meydan where she has been installed as 7/4 favourite for the Sheema Classic on World Cup night and given the obvious similarities between Fuchu and Meydan she's going to be very hard to beat if she reproduces abroad what she has done on her home tracks.

Time to catch up with a few bits and pieces ahead of Sunday's Hong Kong International meeting preview.

All I've got is the decision by Coolmore America to retire MENDELSSOHN to stud in the US. It's probably fair to say that hasn't gone down well with Aidan O'Brien who was, I think, looking forward to running the horse on the Meydan Dirt with a tilt at The Pegasus another option but it seems Coolmore's American stud business see MENDELSSOHN as a real find.

Big changes to the coverage of racing up here from the New Year. As you know, we have At the Races (ATR) and Racing UK (RUK) whch are the two digital racing channels. ATR is part of the Sky family and comes free if you pay for the dish. RUK is on a subscription of £26 per month but is available outside of Sky. RUK has had the top meetings (Cheltenham, Ascot, Epsom and Newmarket) but ATR has the Irish racing and gthe likes of Doncaster and Newcastle.

From January 1st, RUK becomes Racing TV (RTV) and will take over Irish coverage but will lose Ascot, Bangor and Chester to the new Sky Sports Racing (SSR) which replaces ATR and will have exclusive coverage of French and American racing. Both "new" channels have been parading their new line-ups this week so we'll see how it goes in the New Year.

On then to the last gasp of the Northern Hemisphere season, Hong Kong International Day at Sha Tin and there are four Group 1 races open to international challengers.

The first is the Cup over 2000m but with EZIYRA scratched this morning, the sole British and Irish challenger is STORMY ANTARCTIC who was fourth to ROARING LION in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot. The ground was soft that day but he was solid fast ground form and is a Group 2 performer in the UK. On the numbers he has a little to find with the Japanese raider SUNGAZER and last year's winner of this race TIME WARP.

The Mile looks at the mercy of last year's winner BEAUTY GENERATION who warmed up with a win in a Group 2 over the course and distance and looks too good for his rivals. The British challengers are BEAT THE BANK who is a solid Group 2 performer having won at Ascot and Goodwood but has always come up short in the highest company and the far more interesting ONE MASTER who gets 8lbs from the local superstar and has the assistance of Ryan Moore. ONE MASTER won the Foret on Arc day and then was beaten barely a length when a close fifth to EXPERT EYE in the Breeders Cup Mile. If he can adapt to this track I think ONE MASTER has a sporting chance of running down BEAUTY GENERATION.

SIR DANCEALOT runs in the 1200m Sprint but I simply can't see him competing with the locals.

The Vase over 2400m is, like its Breeders Cup Turf equivalent, the race the raiders usually bring a strong challenge to and usually win. This year is no exception even with the scratching of CAPRI this morning. Four British, three Irish and a French challenger take on the enigmatic local star, PAKISTAN STAR, under William Buick. The French raider and narrow market favourite is WALDGEIST who was a close fourth to ENABLE in the Arc but much further behind her in the Breeders Cup Turf.

The British challenge is headed by SALOUEN who was sixth and only just behind WALDGEIST in the Arc. He did once run CRACKSMAN to a head at Epsom but that's not reliable form. MIRAGE DANCER hasb't got many miles on the clock and could surprise but his form is at Group 3 level and for all his quite high rating he has to prove he can mix it with some seriously good rivals on an unfamilar track. He did win the Glorious Stakes comfortably beating RED VERDON who re-opposes but looks well held.

Finally we have PRINCE OF ARRAN who won the Lexus Stakes and ran a huge third to CROSS COUNTER in the Melbourne Cup. He's obviously in great heart but has a bit to find with the likes of WALDGEIST on the numbers.

The Irish challenge consists of two 3-y-o in the shape of LATROBE and ROSTROPOVITCH botht of whom travelled to Australia. They finished first and second in the Irish Derby which is proper Group 1 form and LATROBE ran a fine second in the MacKinnon having swerved the Melbourne Cup. ROSTROPOVITCH was fifth to WINX in the Cox Plate and fifth again in the Melbourne Cup which are both very good efforts. Will the long season and the extra travelling take their toll on the younger horses? I'm much more interested in the other Irish challenger, EZIYRA. She was third in the Yorkshire Oaks and sixth in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She gets 8 lbs from the colts and her biggest threat might be the Japanese filly LYS GRACIEUX.

Who wins the Vase? I fancy EZIYRA and she's a knocking each way bet at 16/1. WALDGEIST deserves to be favourite but I also expect PRINCE OF ARRAN to run well.

The Hong Kong races are on Sunday morning UK time and I'll post a review once I've had a chance to watch the action.

An early Sunday morning start so I could have a look at the Hong Kong Races.

The opening race was the Vase over 2400m which saw a strong European challenge headed by WALDGEIST but the race stayed with the locals as Zac Purton got home on EXULTANT just holding the late challenge of LYS GRACIEUX and Joao Moreira but great news for me was EZIYRA coming home third at 36/1. They went very steady under CROCOSMIA and the field packed up on the home turn as often happens in Hong Kong races and those nearer the pace had a real advantage with a number of those trying to come from off the pace either running out of space or running out of ground.

That said, the first two drew away and both are decent animals. EZIYRA ran a fine race in third beaten two and a half lengths but couldn't go with the front two but I'll take the each way draw and treat Mrs Stodge to a nice Sunday lunch next week.

WALDGEIST ran a fine race in fifth but didn't get a clear run while ROSTROPOVITCH, PRINCE OF ARRAN and SALOUEN all finished midfield. It all happened too quickly for LATROBE who was twelfth and MIRAGE DANCER trailed home last.

The Sprint over 1200m was a repeat of last year with MR STUNNING just holding on from D B PIN in a repeat 1-2 from 2017. SIR DANCEALOT could never lay up and finished last.

It was also a repeat in the Mile as last year's winner BEAUTY GENERATION absolutely bolted up by three lengths in a hugely impressive performance. He's an ex-Aussie galloper who won the Rosehill Guineas as a 3-y-o but has thrived since coming to Hong Kong and this autumn has won four races with authority. I'd love him to come to Europe and take on the top milers but the owners aren't apparently keen to travel but have nominated the Dubai Turf as a possible next target. I think if he were to win that well they might be more interested in coming to Ascot. As a clue, he beat VIVLOS three lengths here and VIVLOS was three and a half lengths second to BENBATL in Dubai in the spring so that gives you some idea of where BEAUTY GENERATION might sit in comparison to the rest of the world.

Finally, we had the Cup over 2000m. This produced a trap-to-line win for ex-British galloper GLORIOUS FOREVER on whom Silvestre de Sousa rode a brilliant front running ride. GLORIOUS FOREVER wen toe-to-toe with TIME WARP, the winner of this race last year and his older full brother. A family 1-2 was thwarted by the Japanese DEIRDRE who came with a late run but was a length down at the line. The other Japanese galloper SUNGAZER was fourth while STORMY ANTARCTIC never showed.

A wonderful day for the locals as they kept all four Group 1 races at home and it's to be hoped we'll see more Hong Kong gallopers travelling to Europe and Australasia. The Hong Kong sprinter shave always competed strongly in Europe and BEAUTY GENERATION looks a real champion who would be as home taking on WINX as taking on the top European gallopers.

Some unfortunate fallout for William Buick after the Hong Kong International races with a 6 week bam for his riding of PAKISTAN STAR in the Vase. On the home turn he manoeuvred the local horse off the rail and hampered both WALDGEIST and RED VERDON. As we know, the Hong Kong authorities take infringements of this nature seriously and they've given Buick a big ban and a hefty fine though he is appealing both.

Back home, it's been confirmed the 3.5 million guinea full brother to TOO DARN HOT, who was top lot at the Tattersalls Yearling Sales, will go to John Gosden in 2019 to be trained for his juvenile campaign. Clearly, the exploits of TOO DARN HOT as a 3-y-o will be of huge interest (he is currently 6/4 favourite for the 2019 2000 Guineas which is less than five months away.

As a change of mood, I journeyed to Lingfield this afternoon for the track's final jump meeting of 2018. A small crowd but a pleasant afternoon and I played up my each way return on EZIYRA with a couple of winners though at much less rewarding odds. The opening Bumper (or NH Flat Race) over 3200m on the Polytrack went to the taking NIMBY, a son of Doyen out of a Trempolino mare. I suspect he may eschew hurdles in favour of a winter flat campaign over 2400m and further.

Just a couple of snippets from the winter flat campaign here in the UK. ENABLE's half sister ENTITLE won her maiden on Wednesday over 1600m. ENABLE is by Nathaniel and ENTITLE is by Dansili so you'd think she would want 2000m at best. It will be interesting to see where she goes as a 3-y-o but obviously any black type will make her worth a fortune at stud. Her full brother CENTROID won on debut over 2000m but was turned over at 4/5 when tried over 2400m.

Last Saturday, Cambridgeshire winner WISSAHICKON was a ready winner of the 2000m Listed race. Whether the aim is a tilt at the Winter Derby next spring or a campaign in Dubai I don't know but he's a Group horse on this and given his all-American breeding you'd think the Meydan Dirt wouldn't be an issue.

10 go in Boxing Day's big race here, the King George VI Chase over 4800m at Kempton. The ground will be pretty quick for the time of year and I fancy POLITOLOGUE to upset the proven 3-milers on this sharp track. I'm on each way at 6/1 which is a bet to nothing as if he gets placed I'll still make a few quid.

I'm thinking about posting a final review of 2018 but maybe at the weekend.

A final word or two on the 2018 Northern Hemisphere season.

It’s been a tremendous year for Godolphin who have spent years in the shadow of GALILEO and Coolmore – MASAR won the Epsom Derby and horses like BENBATL and BEST SOLUTION carried the flag across the world culminating in CROSS COUNTER winning the Melbourne Cup exploiting a huge gap in the race conditions which lets quality European staying 3-y-o in with no weight. Joseph O’Brien saw this first with REKINDLING in 2017 and Charlie Appleby did the same this year.

I expect the Victorian racing authorities to try to close this loophole in the year ahead.

I thought at the start of the year SAXON WARRIOR would win the Derby and struggle in the 2000 Guineas but I was completely wrong. He produced a superb turn of foot to win at Newmarket but failed at Epsom when caught for toe at a vital time. Newmarket turned out to be his high point and the horses who finished behind him in the 2000 Guineas came on to steal the show.

Well, some of them – runner up TIP TO WIN and fourth ELARQAM haven’t set the world on fire. The third, MASAR, went to Epsom and was an impressive Derby winner. Unfortunately, injury ended his season and we’ll have to see if he will be a top 4-y-o and a viable opponent for ENABLE and others in Paris next autumn.

In fifth came ROARING LION and he emerged as the real star. After the Dante he ran third at Epsom palpably coming up short on stamina. Back at 2000m, however, he would prove a superstar winning the Eclipse, Juddmonte and Irish Champion before stepping back to 1600m and coping with the Ascot mud to win the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. He heads off to stud as a real champion.

The 3-y-o mile colt milers turned out to be very poor – EXPERT EYE finished down the field in the Guineas, won the Jersey and ran a fine second in the Sussex to the veteran LIGHTNING SPEAR who finally had his day in the sun.

To be honest, the fillies looked little better early on – the 1000 Guineas went to a 66/1 shot in BILLESDEN BROOK but as is often the case the fillies needed time and especially so after a very cold and late start to spring and Ireland would produce a quality filly whose emergence began in the Irish 1000 Guineas.

ALPHA CENTAURI, trained by Jessie Harrington, would be the undisputed queen of the 3-y-o mile fillies winning the Coronation at Ascot, the Falmouth at Newmarket, beating the boys in the Marois at Deauville before a narrow defeat to LAURENS in the Matron during which she suffered a career ending injury.

LAURENS had finished second to BILLESDEN BROOK at Newmarket but found her true calling in France winning the Saint Alary and the Diane before winning the Irish Champion and the Sun Chariot. She was slightly in ALPHA CENTAURI’s shadow this year but stays in training at four and looks an exciting prospect.

Among the sprinters, we had become used to seeing a star come out of the Commonwealth Cup but this year’s winner EQTIDAAR didn’t scale the heights of past winners. A 3-y-o did win the July Cup in the form of US NAVY FLAG but the sprinting question was all about HARRY ANGEL and BATAASH. However, both succumbed to their temperament and problems at the start. HARRY ANGEL won well at York but boiled over at Ascot, flopped at Haydock and was retired after finishing second on Champions Day.

BATTAASH started well at Haydock but was just outrun by BLUE POINT in the King’s Stand before putting up a brilliant performance at Goodwood. Unfortunately, he couldn’t follow up in either the Nunthorpe or the Abbaye leaving a season of unfulfilled hopes.

The sprinting division looks murky and possibly MABS CROSS, who was a close second in the Nunthorpe before a fine win in Paris, emerges as top of the tree but the way is clear for a very quick 3-y-o to emerge next year.

The middle-distance fillies also were slow to come to hand but in SEA OF CLASS a new champion emerged. She hadn’t raced at two but after winning a couple of races went to The Curragh and defeated the English Oaks winner FOREVER TOGETHER in a thrilling finish. From there she went to York and put up a hugely impressive performance in the Yorkshire Oaks and went to the Arc as a live contender but a terrible draw seemed to give her a mountain to climb.

She nearly made it but the only horse to beat her that day was ENABLE. The 2017 Arc winner had been expected to return for Ascot but niggling injuries had kept her off the track until September when she had run in a small Group 3 against the King George runner up CRYSTAL OCEAN. After that success she had gone to Paris having not run on turf for a year but was still able, thanks in small part to a hugely favourable draw, to prevail with SEA OF CLASS thundering home and just failing to spoil the party.

ENABLE will bid to win a third Arc in 2019 but her stable companion, CRACKSMAN, has gone to stud. He also had a mixed season. After a brilliant win in the Ganay, he struggled to win the Coronation Cup at Epsom having apparently hit his head on the stalls.

At Ascot, however, on firm ground, he was decisively outpointed by POET’S WORD (of whom more anon) and this left plenty of questions. However, back on soft ground on Champions Day, he handed out a six-length thrashing of CRYSTAL OCEAN to go out on a high.

With the John Gosden middle distance stars misfiring, it was Sir Michael Stoute who picked up the pieces in the older horse division. POET’S WORD had chased home HAWKBILL at Meydan on World Cup night but returned in style at Sandown before following up in the Prince of Wales and the King George (leading home a 1-2 for the stable beating CRYSTAL OCEAN) over 2400m. Back to 2000m he was decisively defeated in the Juddmonte by ROARING LION and has been retired.

The staying division saw old adversaries STRADIVARIUS and ORDER OF ST GEORGE clash once again but for the latter the best of times was behind him and STRADIVARIUS won the inaugural £1 million challenge taking out the Gold Cup, Goodwood Cup and Lonsdale Cup and ending up winning the Stayers Race on Champions Day.

STRADIVARIUS is top dog among the stayers for now but there are some promising older colts in the O’Brien yard for next year including the likes of Leger winner KEW GARDENS whose close seventh in the Arc suggests he will be a force as a 4-y-o whether over 2400m or at trips up to 4000m.

Finally, with 2019 in mind, a word about the juveniles. It’s fair to say the juvenile fillies looked a moderate bunch the colts were very difficult with three real superstars coming to the fore.
Andrew and Madeleine Lloyd-Webber had enjoyed success with the likes of DAR RE MI and their 3-y-o filly LAH TI DAH ended her season with a close second to KEW GARDENS in the Leger but their juvenile TOO DARN HOT ended the season unbeaten having won the Solario, the Champagne and a vintage renewal of the Dewhurst at Newmarket.

TOO DARN HOT beat ADVERTISE, who had run second to CALYX in the Coventry at Ascot while ANTHONY VAN DYCK finished a close third with Acomb winner SANGARIUS in fourth.
ANTHONY VAN DYCK had been beaten in the National Stakes by Godolphin’s QUORTO who looks a superstar while the third player is TEN SOVEREIGNS who beat JASH (another exciting prospect) to win the Middle Park.

TOO DARN HOT is 11/8 for the 2000 Guineas with QUORTO at 6/1 and TEN SOVEREIGNS at 8/1 but all three could be champions and it looks (at this stage) a very strong group of 3-y-o colts in the offing but we’ll see.

On the wider UK stage, changes in broadcasting come in on Tuesday which sees Irish racing move to the subscription Racing TV. Legislation reducing the maximum stake in FOBTs threatens the survival of hundreds of shops (so we are told) and Brexit carries its own uncertainties in terms of whether horses will be able to move freely from the UK to Ireland and Europe.

There seems a strong anti-gambling mood at present in the UK and the bookmakers will need to tread carefully in the year ahead. On the track, prize money at some tracks is likely to come under pressure as income from bookmakers falls.

Finally, I hope you’ve enjoyed my musings from the north in 2018 – I’ll try to keep everyone updated with events during the spring, summer and autumn up here once again next year. Please feel free to comment, ask questions or offer any thoughts – always welcome.

Happy New Year.