StableTalk

One or two set backs for the Europeans in the Australian Spring Campaign this week. WITHHOLD bled during a disappointing run in the Geelong Cup and is on his way home while LATROBE swerves the Melbourne Cup for the MacKinnon (I suspect he'll run in the Cup in 2019 when he might be a big player).

So to this thrilling weekend which starts with the 1200m Manikato at Moonee Valley late Friday night (UK). Aidan O'Brien runs four but his main hope would be US NAVY FLAG for whom the ground was all wrong in the Everest but has strong claims on quicker ground. SPIRIT OF VALOR was five lengths behind US NAVY FLAG in the July Cup and I can't see why he should reverse places though he was a decent second in a Group 2 a fortnight ago.

Saturday's stellar Moonee Valley card features the Cox Plate for which WINX is the 1/4 favourite and her record speaks for itself. I think this trip suits so much better than the 1400m and 1600m races and to be honest I think she would win or run very well in an Arc de Triomphe. BENBATL won the Ladbrokes Stakes well but in so doing only just reversed Jebel Hatta form with BLAIR HOUSE so it's possible to argue that race was about Meydan standard.

BENBATL was six lengths behind ROARING LION in the Juddmonte so that's the benchmark if you like. You could argue AVILIUS links to CRACKSMAN via the 2017 Niel but I'm not convinced. ROSTROPOVITCH is a 2400m horse. WINX should win - she has home court advantage.

The 2400m Moonee Valley Gold Cup is another Melbourne Cup Trial and in a wide open field THE TAJ MAHAL is 9/2 favourite. To be honest, a lot of these are on recovery missions after disappointing efforts so a big price winner wouldn't surprise.

Saw the Manikato which went off late morning over here. SPIRIT OF VALOR ran a huge race to be narrowly denied by BRAVE SMASH but for me it was all about getting a good start from the stalls.

US NAVY FLAG rarely breaks well and he was slow away again and was never going to get involved while I thought SUNLINE had a fair position but could do nothing with it. KEMENTARI ran very well and is clearly a 1400m horse.

I thought WINX was superb in winning the Cox Plate. BENBATL ran perfectly well but she dismissed him with contempt in the final 300m to win two lengths pulling up. She never got into a fight because BENBATL couldn't get her into a fight.

She beat the likes of HUMIDOR and AVILIUS, who are no mugs, comfortably.

Is she the best in the world? If she were to have come here and raced against ROARING LION over 2000m at York or Ascot on fast ground I'd not be convinced she would win. I still think she could go further and I think she could have won this year's Arc but whether she's have been tearing through the field with SEA OF CLASS trying to run down ENABLE we'll never know.

Where can she possibly go from here ? Five Cox Plates perhaps ? If THE AUTUMN SUN is as good as some claim she may have a real challenger and the talk of the young pretender coming to Ascot next year is, I hope, genuine.

Looking ahead a week or so, DURETTO looks unlikely to make the Flemington highlight but there' still time for horses to scrape into the 24-strong field. MAGIC CIRCLE is the 6/1 favourite over here.

Nine European trained runners line up in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday morning (UK) so I thought I'd run my eye over them:

BEST SOLUTION:

Won the Caulfield Cup after winning the Grosser Preis von Baden but has never gone beyond 2400m. He's the class act here and has improved since running fifth to Hawkbill in the Sheema Classic back in March. He's weighted accordingly and I just think he may be vulnerable on that score.

THE CLIFFSOFMOHER

Another classy performer who has placed behind BEST SOLUTION and BENBATL in his prep. Ran second in the 2017 Derby and fourth in the Irish Derby. He certainly gets 2400m but will the extra trip find him out? I have to be honest - he's often ran well and mixed it with the very best but hasn't won much.

MAGIC CIRCLE

Won the Chester Cup by six lengths and the Group 3 Henry II by the same margin barely a fortnight later. Both were hugely impressive performances and he obviously stays the trip. He's not run since which is a concern and I've never been wholly convinced the Melbourne Cup is a true stayers race. If it does turn into a stamina test he has a lot going for him but I just doubt is he has the speed of the 2000 and 2400m horses. I can see him being placed.

MUNTAHAA

Trained by John Gosden and we know what a smart trainer he is. Fourth to BEST SOLUTION over 2400m at Newmarket in July but a concincing win of the Ebor (which NAKEETA won last year) and possibly still on the upgrade. He's my each way pick and I'm on at 12s.

MARMELO

Ninth last year and no obvious reason why he should be any closer in my view. He is held by MUNTAHAA on a line through Weekender but did run subsequent Royal Oak winner HOLDTHAISGREEN close in the Kergorlay. I don't think he has the tactical speed for this.

YUCATAN

The favourite and big talking horse. It was a very impressive performance in the Herbert Power and you could argue he was only a length behind Rewilding in the 2017 Ballysax so he's a certainty. Maybe. Maybe not. He has no form beyond 2100m over here and this is a good deal further. He's not short of speed to be fair but the draw is awful and he's not for me.

A PRINCE OF ARRAN

Secured his place in the field when winning the Lexus but he's held by MAGIC CIRCLE on Chester form and by YUCATAN on Herbert Power running. He has raced in America which will, oddly enough, be useful here with variations of pace and a left-handed oval to deal with and I think he'll go close without winning.

NAKEETA

Fifth last year after winning the Ebor but his form has been moderate of late and I don't fancy him at all.

CROSS COUNTER

A lightly-weighted European 3-y-o won this last year and two have similar profiles this year. His defeat of Derby second DEE EXBEE in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood caught a lot of people's attention as the time was excellent and his second to OLD PERSIAN (with the subsequent Leger winner KEW GARDENS just behind) was another very good effort. Does have have the nous and experience to win this on only his eighth run? I also think he's been done no favours by the draw. If history repeats he'll be the one.

ROSTROPOVITCH

Unlike CROSS COUNTER, this will be ROSTROPOVITCH's fourteenth run. He was a well held fifth to WINX in the Cox Plate but on a line through OLD PERSIAN comes out about the same as CROSS COUNTER. Second in the Irish Derby to LATROBE, ROSTROPOVITCH is another drawn out wide which doesn't help.

To conclude, give me $10 from Father's collection plate and I'd put it on MUNTAHAA from the Europeans.

Well, we finally did it - a British-trained winner of the Melbourne Cup.

A brilliant effort by CROSS COUNTER and incredible to see how much ground he made up in the straight to run down MARMELO and PRINCE OF ARRAN close home to give Godolphin one of their biggest days (and after the huge effort of THUNDER ROAD in the Breeders Cup Classic plenty of evidence Godolphin are the dominant force in world racing).

MARMELO and PRINCE OF ARRAN ran blinders and I think the softer ground helped the Europeans and the stayers.

I wonder if CROSS COUNTER will be sent over staying trips next season or whether they will keep him to 2400m.

Of the others, ROSTROPOVITCH ran a huge race in fifth and I wonder if Ballydoyle regret not bringing KEW GARDENS.

Fourth placed FINCHE was going best, I thought, on th home turn and this ex-Andre Fabre inmate acquitted himself well. MUNTAHAA ran okay in ninth on ground that had probably gone against him but MAGIC CIRCLE bled and it was awful to see CLIFFS OF MOHER succumb to a dreadful shoulder injury which left Ryan Moore upset and the Melbourne Cup remains cursed for Coolmore it would seem.

So CROSS COUNTER emulated REWILDING and the Europeans have found a tasty loophole in race conditions which lets their 3-y-o (which are effectively 4-y-o) in with just 50kg (or 8 stone) whereas the indigenous 4-y-o run at 58kg. Over here the 3-y-o get just 3 lbs from the older horses by early November so it's a huge advantage for our 3-y-o to run at such a light weight and now it's been done twice I imagine the Australians will be moving to close the loophole otherwise the Europeans will just bring their second division 3-y-o and scoop the prize next year.

A couple of those mentioned in my latest bloodstock report are in action at Flemington tomorrow morning (UK). Five Europeans are in the VRC Sprint Classic field and four are with Aidan O'Brien. US NAVY FLAG hated the ground in the Everest but has questions to answer while SPIRIT OF VALOR ran a huge second in the Manikato behind BRAVE SMASH with stable mates FLEET REVIEW, INTELLIGENCE CROSS and US NAVY FLAG all behind.

I'm more interested in JUNGLE CAT representing Godolphin who of course scooped the big one on Tuesday. He was tried over 1600m last time at Caulfield and patently didn't stay but 1200m is his trip and he could go close from the two stall. REDZEL is of course the star having won both runnings of the Everest and won this last year. REDKIRK WARRIOR is back home after a disappointing campaign in Europe which saw him well held inboth the Diamond Jubilee and the July Cup.

I've had a small each way bet on JUNGLE CAT at 12s over here.

JUNGLE CAT's connections have a big shout in the Mackinnon over 2000m with BLAIR HOUSE who chased home BENBATL last time after a good run in the Underwood. He swerved the Cox Plate to run in this and on a line through HUMIDOR has a huge chance. LATROBE won the Irish Derby but that wasn't a strong renewal and connections swerved thre Melbourne Cup and have dropped back 1200m to run in this. I'm far from convinced LATROBE has the speed - he's more of a stayer than REWILDING was last year.