StableTalk

there was a clear inside leaders bias all day so no unlucky
huge run from marmelo as was back and wide,will he improve..probably

cox plate this weekend and a poor field which means winx wins again,lot are there for the second money which is significant

alot been gone on while i been doing silly hours working(day off today going to job interview which will mean even more hours by sound)
a huge number of stallions at stud this year in nz and I've notice the Galileo influence is so strong up north you in desperate need of new blood and i can so your studs looking at shuttling in reverse in big way soon

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If I'm Talking You Should Be Taking Notes

It's good to see you back on here, your Grace, even if only occasionally.

I've missed your musings on matters bloodstock.

Yes, Galileo is the start and the finish up here at present and he dominated Champions Day again via ORDER OF ST GEORGE, HYDRANGEA and CRACKSMAN (by Frankel). When asked on tv who the best horse he ever trained was, Aidan O'Brien said Galileo not because he was the best on the track but because of all the horses he has produced which have been the foundation of the Coolmore domination up here.

Coolmore have tried to bring other stallion influences in to breed with Galileo's daughters but they've not really succeeded as yet. The figures tell the story - Galileo's progeny have won nearly £12 million in win and place money in Britain with Dubawi and Dark Angel at just under £4 million each.

After years of boycotting Galileo, Godolphin have started to buy his stock as well so the domination looks set to continue.

Is it unhealthy ? Possibly but if his progeny were rubbish he'd have fallen out of favour but they aren't. They were tough, willing competitors who seem to go on almost any ground and while Aidan O'Brien is good at what he does, so is John Gosden and he has a grandson of Galileo (via Frankel) who is a champion and ENABLE, a daughter of Nathaniel and therefore again with Galileo as grand-sire.

The Cox Plate at Moonee Valley takes place in the early hours of Saturday (UK). WINX is 1/7 over here and that's no surprise as she dominates Australian racing.

There's no reason why she can't win this again and arguably she faces a weaker field. Two Europeans run against her and while KASPERSKY has no chance. FOLKSWOOD is an interesting runner. In Britain he's a solid Group 3 performer but he had a very good spell in Meydan last spring on the fast flat left-hand oval and ran second to DECORATED KNIGHT in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta over 1800m on Trials Night in early March.

Now, DECORATED KNIGHT is a decent horse and won the Irish Champion Stakes in September so a literal reading of that form means WINX is taking on a solid European Group 1 class type here. I think the track, trip and ground are all ideal for FOLKSWOOD and he's a solid place prospect at 20/1 over here. He shouldn't beat WINX but if he gets anywhere near, it will be informative.

Well, she won but she didn't impress me if I'm being honest.

HUMIDOR was beaten seven and a half lengths in the Turnbull yet he's got to within half a length here - either he's improved or she hasn't performed to her very best and my money (and very nice money it is too) is on the latter. She was much more impressive last year and for me she has passed her peak and is on the downgrade.

FOLKSWOOD was rated 113 over here and was beaten three lengths by DEAUVILLE when third in the Huxley Stakes. On today's evidence I'd give WINX a European rating of 120 which is solid Group 1 but behind the likes of CRACKSMAN and ENABLE who both rate in the 130s.

I know it's heresy to say so but if she comes to England for the Prince of Wales or the Queen Anne she'll be welcomed warmly and then beaten on the track. I suspect she won't come.

No European interest at Flemington overnight but the big race is now just four days away and the field is starting to settle for the Melbourne Cup due off here at 4am on Tuesday morning.

QEWY won the Bendigo Cup again but won't go in the big one as trainer Charlie Appleby thinks it will come too soon. This means WALL OF FIRE is guaranteed a run.

The latest betting up here has MARMELO at 5/1 favourite with previous winner ALMANDIN at 6/1 , HUMIDOR at 9s with JOHANNES VERMEER and WALL OF FIRE at 10s. Beyond that among the Europeans RED CARDINAL is 12s, REKINDLING 14s, MAX DYNAMITE 16s, NAKEETA and TIBERIAN at 20s, WICKLOW BRAVE 33s and US ARMY RANGER 50s.

My first thought is HUMIDOR got to within half a length of WINX and he's 9/1. Put WINX in here and what price would she be ? The problem is HUMIDOR has flopped at 2400m let alone 3200m. I know it has been done and it can be done and Australian horses do distances differently to Europeans but if he were 10s, he'd be worth a bet because to me he's the stand out on form.

Of the Europeans, MARMELO ran really well the other day and the extra trip will be a big plus. He's our best chance of winning I think. JOHANNES VERMEER is well exposed and the trip is a concern as it is for WALL OF FIRE who ran well in the Herbert Power and has no weight here.

RED CARDINAL looked good on fast ground in America in mid summer but was well held by MARMELO in the Kergorlay. REKINDLING is only a 3-y-o and was fourth in the Leger. There's just a hint he wouldn't want the ground too quick. MAX DYNAMITE ran a blinder here two years ago but that was then and NAKEETA, game though he was in the Ebor, shouldn't be good enough and nor should TIBERIAN or WICKLOW BRAVE. If he could reproduce his 2016 Derby second to Harzand, US ARMY RANGER would be right in this but he's been poor of late.

I'd still be surprised if the Europeans won it this year - it's not our strongest challenge by any means. I do think MARMELO is the right kind of horse for the race and with luck in running, could go close. I come back to last year's form and while ALMANDIN has been laid out for the race, I like HARTNELL, who was third in this in 2016, back up over this trip and he'll be carrying an each way bet at 20/1 or bigger.

Well, that was fairly embarrassing, wasn't it ?

I called just about everything wrong but many congratulations to Joseph O'Brien whose meteoric rise up the training ranks continues. The question of how long he can or will remain in his father's shadow remains to be resolved and with some of the older Newmarket trainers perhaps approaching retirement, the thought of Joseph taking on one of the big English yards in five years time isn't that fanciful.

I thought it was a curious race as I find a lot of Australian races over 3200m. It's run more like a French race with a sprint off the final turn and a steady if not slow gallop down the back. I think this may explain why British horses don't do so well in the race but French horses have but why do Irish runners go well ?

MARMELO was too close to the pace and had no answer when they quickened up from behind. I thought JOHANNES VERMEER was in the perfect position all the way round and I had him as the winner on the home turn but Corey Brown produced REKINDLING with a fine run to take the prize. It's also worth noting perhaps the use of local jockeys rather than European riders.

REKINDLING is a 3-y-o and the fact no 3-y-o had won the Cup since before Pearl Harbour put me off and he's been on the go since winning the Ballysax back in April so that's a really long campaign for a young horse. Arguably, his one poor effort was in the Epsom Derby but not every horse takes to that unique venue and he had run a decent race when fourth to CAPRI in the English Leger. ORDER OF ST GEORGE thrashed him five lengths and gave him weight in the Irish Leger Trial as well.

JOHANNES VERMEER ran a fine race in defeat - was it 200m too far ? It's hard to know. MAX DYNAMITE ran another blinder in this race where he was second in 2015. He was arguably a shade too far back and didn't get the clearest of runs but he ran home strongly to be beaten just three lengths.

So a 1-2-3 for Ireland with a brace of O'Briens followed by Mullins. While in some respects Irish racing is occasionally derided as the poor relation against the size and wealth of English and French racing, there's no doubt Ireland produces great horses, trainers and jockeys and they are ahead of English racing in quality if not quantity.

Of the other Europeans, Ebor winner NAKEETA ran home strongly for fifth and for a small yard like Iain Jardine winning over £100k for coming home fifth is better than almost any other pay day he'll get up here. THOMAS HOBSON came home sixth and TIBERIAN seventh - I thought the latter had a big chance on the final turn but he didn't quicken. Both trousered over £70k for their connections.

MARMELO finished ninth so that was still a decent payday but whether connections will feel the race will ever work for him remains to be seen. He is a good horse and I expect him to be part of the big staying races up here next season. WICKLOW BRAVE was tenth, RED CARDINAL eleventh and both WALL OF FIRE and US ARMY RANGER further back.

It's the strength and depth of the European performance which has surprised me. I didn't think this was a very strong challenge in quality terms but we have frankly destroyed the Australians on their home soil in their home race and obviously as an Englishman I derive more than a hint of satisfaction from that. I also see the siren calls to reduce or restrict the number of international runners have begun - there's one easy solution, reduce the size of the pot to $1 million and you can have your little provincial race back. If you put up a big pot don't be surprised if the big boys want a piece of it.

I think there will be increasing pressure in Europe for some jurisdiction to come up with their own version. Make the Ebor a £5 million race and see who turns up would be a start. Money talks and it makes people walk (or fly).

Aussies have a need to do everything different from the way Poms do them. Their subconscious won't allow them to forget that the country was founded by English rejects

I've always had great respect for Irish horses, training and racing. As you say, the size and wealth of English and French racing means nothing when it comes to racing and, in particular, training methods in this hemisphere.... and, of course, Oz & NZ races are set up suit Oz & NZ horses.

Indeed and we've been watching the Aussie reaction to the eclipse of their horses in the Melbourne Cup with great amusement up here

I see NZ and Oz racing as having a similar relationship to Irish and English racing. You have the quality, they bring the quantity.

In terms of actual racing styles, I've reviewed the MC and, to be honest, as a race it always seems to be run the same way - quick, slow, slow, quick as it were with a sprint off the home turn and down the straight. I can see why 2000-2400m horses do well and out and out stayers are left running on for places. It all happens too quickly for the European stayers and they don't have the instant turn of foot a 2400m horse might have - they lose that vital ground and momentum and can't get it back.

Decent 3200m races up here fall into two categories - they can be tactical with small fields or if the fields are larger they are more end-to-end gallops. The two races most like the MC up here are the Northumberland Plate and the Ebor - indeed, the former is described up here as a "2 mile sprint" and if you saw it you'd recognise it. The Ebor is over 400m shorter but is similar. In both races there tends to be a strong gallop from the start and stamina comes more into play.

Oddly enough, the one horse I've seen this year who I thought would have been an ideal MC runner was WINGS OF EAGLES who won the Derby. He quickened off a strong 2400m gallop at Epsom as he had at Chester. REKINDLING ran in the Derby and an enterprising owner of a placed Derby runner might think £6m is a pot worth playing for after a tilt at the Leger. Joseph O'B might have opened the door for other trainers to consider bringing their 3-y-o for a autumn tilt to Flemington rather than the Breeders Cup.

Another huge day at Flemington on Saturday and more European interest in the main races.

FASTNET TEMPEST was a fair handicapper over here running in some strong races such as the Hunt Cup at Ascot and he nearly won the Sale Cup last time. QEWY seeks to follow up his Bendigo Cup win in the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2600m but the horse he beat into second that day, KIWIA, reopposes on a kilo better terms and has every chance of reversing the places.

The Emirates Stakes over 2000m looks like the Flemington version of the Cox Plate. FOLKSWOOD ran a fair third at Moonee Valley but doesn't have a good draw. THE TAJ MAHAL was well down the field in the Caulfield Cup but has had time to acclimatise and may go better but he'll have to do against the likes of GINGERNUTS who is a Group 1 winner and a seriously good horse.

Nice to see FASTNET TEMPEST pick up a decent prize. QEWY has been retired after running sixth in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes behind VENGEUR MASQUE who was trained in Italy in his younger days and ran fifth in the 2015 Leger. Clearly, a race to pick over given REKINDLING's success in the Melbourne Cup.

THE TAJ MAHAL ran much better with the application of blinkers and finished a decent fourth in the Emirates. I do wonder if he's one of those types who doesn't really have a trip - he was once Derby favourite over here. FOLKSWOOD is, in my view, a 2400m horse and ran on nicely at the end to be in the bunch for the minor places.