StableTalk

One quarter of the nominations for the A$6.2 million Emirates Melbourne Cup are from the northern hemisphere.

Entries closed today for the 156th Melbourne Cup, which will be run at Flemington on November 1, and 31 of the 124 are from outside Australia and New Zealand.

While the number of internationals is exactly the same as the two previous years, the overall total this year is down on last year's 140 and 148 in 2014.

The Pavel Tuma-trained Trip To Rhodes breaks new ground as the first Cup entry prepared by a trainer from the Czech Republic.

The international brigade includes Japanese horse Curren Mirotic, Da Big Hoss from the United States, the Aidan O'Brien-trained early favourite Order Of St George and French-trained Erupt.

As well as defending champion Prince Of Penzance, the Australasian-trained list includes 2015-16 Derby winners Tarzino, Tavago and Howard Be Thy Name, along with Oaks-winners Sofia Rosa, Jameka, Fanatic and Provocative.

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If I'm Talking You Should Be Taking Notes

https://www.racenet.com.au/breeding/pdfs/2016melbournecupnominations.pdf

The full set of nominations.

As Father says, 31 International runners but one or two won't be making the journey. I'm pretty sure PROTECTIONIST won't come back over and while Aidan O'Brien has entered seven, he won't run them all by any means.

ORDER OF ST GEORGE is the main conundrum - he runs in the Irish Leger in a couple of weeks - but he's more likely, I think, than the 3-y-o (see below) IDAHO, SWORD FIGHTER and HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT.

Saeed Bin Suroor has had a wretched year and while SCOTTISH seems a likely runner, I wouldn't count on any of the other Godolphin entries and if EXOSPHERE is the answer to the Melbourne Cup, somebody should be re-thinking the question.

I'm also puzzled by the lack of French runners - ERUPT looks to be the only French-trained entry.

Weights also out for the Caulfield Cup:

https://www.racenet.com.au/breeding/pdfs/2016-bmw-caulfield-cup-weights-003.pdf

HIGHLAND REEL looks dangerous at the top of the list - I also have to remember the breeding cycle is different with you and our 3-y-o are 4-y-o in the southern hemisphere.

More update on the Melbourne Cup entries from up here. Connections of ORDER OF ST GEORGE aren't at all happy with the 58kg weight the horse has been allocated and aren't going to run. In fact, on a point of handicapping they haven't done badly. Up here, HIGHLAND REEL is rated 3lbs inferior (121) but the Melbourne Cup weights have them running off levels.

PROTECTIONIST almost certainly won't run either.

HEARTBREAK CITY's connections are undecided as is Aidan O'Brien about the size and strength of his Melbourne Cup force. Riding between the lines, I think BONDI BEACH is the most likely runner as HIGHLAND REEL is, I suspect, more likely to go for the Caulfield Cup.

My gut feeling at this stage is that the European challenge won't be as deep as it has been in other years. The French have only the one contender and I doubt he'll run while the likes of BIG ORANGE, TRIP TO PARIS and WICKLOW BRAVE look much more certain contenders.

stodge....... You might be interested in this:-



So, you might want to spend a bit of time in Australia after you sort out your picks for our Saturday Comp (now called Galloping In NZ on a Saturday).
It might be another way to build up your Punters Club Balance

You do realise Mrs Stodge and I no longer have romantic Friday evenings huddled over a bottle of wine and cod and chips twice from the Seahorse in East Ham High Street.

Now, she watches tv while I pore over New Zealand and Australian horse form (and that's before the WTA Comp from a trotting track in some Auckland back street).

There is something to be said in support of Harness Racing Not sure what but I've been assured that there is

The racing can be quite predictable - Favourites win a lot and often pay less $2.

Faster and many variables can cause the odd upset - Winning favourites usually pay a decent dividend, usually $2/$3 and up to $5 or $6.

More exciting and unpredictable than flat racing. Not many NZ trainers bother to put the time and effort into preparing & racing jumpers but, of those who do, 2 or 3 have extraordinary success.

After the busy weekend just gone, plans are firming up in relation to horses travelling or not travelling to Australia.

Three very likely contenders for the Cup from up here are BIG ORANGE, WICKLOW BRAVE and BONDI BEACH.

BIG ORANGE has less than a pound more to carry than last year when he was fifth to PRINCE OF PENZANCE and that ties in with his rating over here going up from 116 to 117 following his Goodwood Cup win. Connections are optimistic for a strong run though whether that means running or just a good placing I'm not so sure.

WICKLOW BRAVE downed ORDER OF ST GEORGE under a brilliant front running ride from Frankie Dettori in the Irish Leger last Sunday and trainer Willie Mullins seems to have had a change of heart about the Cup. He was behind BIG ORANGE at Goodwood but would be a big contender on a wet track.

BONDI BEACH is the most likely Ballydoyle runner now ORDER OF ST GEORGE is heading for Chantilly (see my UK Racing thread). He was 16th last year when running as a northern hemisphere 3-y-o and has had a more targeted preparation. He ran okay behind ZHUKOVA, who Dermot Weld rates very highly and he's a good judge, at Leopardstown last Saturday but I think he will be much better suited to the full 3200m at Flemington.

As a slight aside, the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes winner at Ascot, KIMENA, has been moved from Ralph Beckett's yard to Chris Waller's and will continue racing in Australia. He looks a Caulfield Cup horse rather than a Melbourne Cup horse but has it to find on the numers over here though, in fairness, he wouldn't have been that far behind the likes of FIORENTE.

With both Gai Waterhouse and Chris Waller buying at last night's Horses in Training Sale at Newmarket - Waller bought IMPERIAL AVIATOR, a Listed class horse who ran fourth over 2000m at Newbury on Saturday - racing becomes ever more global.

32 are left in next Tuesday's Melbourne Cup and I thought I'd run the rule over the European challengers bidding to turn over HARTNELL and JAMEKA.

My view is that while European stayers have often run well in the Melbourne Cup, it's not a typical European staying race and the successful European horses such as DUNADEN, PROTECTIONIST, AMERICAIN and imports like FIORENTE have all been 2400m horses with a shade of extra stamina. RED CADEAUX raced over 2400m up here - the true 3200m horses are caught for speed as the sprint begins off the home turn at Flemington and when the field stacks up behind the pacesetters, you need that bit of tactical speed to get position and a start with say 400m to go.

BIG ORANGE was fifth last year and has had an excellent campaign up here benefiting from a superb front running ride at Newmarket in July. He also won the key Goodwood Cup and is a strong challenger. He's not as effective on slow ground and was nine lengths behind EXOSPHERIC at Newmarket on his seasonal bow over 2400m when the ground was on the slow side.

WICKLOW BRAVE was fourth to BIG ORANGE at Goodwood but downed ORDER OF ST GEORGE in the Irish Leger. Conversely, the more rain the better for him. He doesn't have the speed of the 2400m horses and while he's a strong stayer, they may go a shade too quick for him.

BONDI BEACH was well down the field in the Cup last year but that was off a long 3-y-o campaign. He's had a much lighter campaign this year running over 2400m and was a fair third to ZHUKOVA last time. I just think he's been laid out for this and given he's from Aidan O'Brien's yard and from connections who would love to win this race, he's the one I'd be looking at if he were a big price.

EXOSPHERIC is a horse I find difficult to read. He was really impressive in the Jockey Club Stakes back in our spring and a lot of people thought he would be one of the top middle distance older horses but he ran a shocker in the Hardwicke and was well held by BIG ORANGE at Newmarket and by JAMEKA the other day. He'll probably surprise me and win 10 lengths but I can't see it.

SCOTTISH was just in front of EXOSPHERIC the other day and Charlie Appleby's colt has a lot of support over here but on the bare bones of the form he has a lot to find. He's never run beyond 2400m and his only run in a Group 2 was moderate. I'd fancy him in 2017 to win the Cup but I can't see it this year.

HEARTBREAK CITY is a handicapper - yes, he won the Ebor well at York last time but I don't see he has the class to win a race of this quality. His trainer, Tony Martin, is one of the best trainers in Ireland and is known for getting his horses ready to run but again the bare form isn't good enough.

BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE is a classy filly but she's been found out against the very best and was third to JOURNEY at Newmarket which looked a lot better after the latter won the Fillies and Mares on Champions Day. She's never gone beyond 2400m and her breeding would worry you on that score.

SECRET NUMBER was second to Dandino in the Queen's Cup at Flemington and won on soft ground at Ayr last month but that form looks a long way short of this level.

QEWY, who won the Geelong Cup the other day, is on the cusp of getting a run. He's basically a dual purpose horse up here but better on the flat and was second in the Ascot Stakes over 4000m. Again, the form looks well below the level you'd expect.

The two Europeans I fancy are BIG ORANGE and BONDI BEACH - the betting up here as follows:

4/1 HARTNELL
6/1 JAMELKA
10/1 ALMANDIN and BONDI BEACH
12/1 BIG ORANGE (14s in a few places and a tempting each way bet)

It looks as though QEWY will get a run next Tuesday as HOWARD BE THY NAME flopped in the Bendigo Cup and almost certainly will be scratched from the Melbourne Cup.

Meanwhile, ex Coolmore horse and dual purpose runner FRANCIS OF ASSISI won the Bendigo Cup and it's another dual purpose British runner going well over staying distances in Australia. He was a moderate jumper of hurdles and fences up here but ran a decent second at Goodwood last time in a 2400m handicap. I do wonder if all these dual purpose horses really need is some sun on their backs and some decent ground.

A fine win for OCEANOGRAPHER in the Lexus has booked his place in the Melbourne Cup field. He's been strongly backed over here and is now second favourite at 6/1 behind HARTNELL at 4s with JAMEKA at 13/2 and BONDI BEACH at 8s. I'm on BIG ORANGE each way at 16s.

The draw has been kind to both BIG ORANGE and BONDI BEACH and less so to HEARTBREAK CITY who is out in the car park at 24.